Jan 14, 2025
Nankai Trough Earthquake Probability
Last night, after the Miyazaki earthquake, an emergency meeting was convened to discuss the possibility of a larger earthquake on the Nankai fault. The meeting started around 10 pm and ended at 11.45 pm. The consensus was that a larger Nankai Trough earthquake is not imminent further to the Miyazaki earthquake, but there is still a 70 to 80% chance of a large earthquake on the fault in the next 30 years.
Last summer, widespread panic buying ensued after the Japan Meteorological Agency released their first ever alert of a possible megaquake along the Nankai Trough fault. I was in Ireland at the time, so I missed all the coverage. But last night I watched the coverage of the earthquake in Miyazaki live on NHK. And so it was also the first time that I saw an emergency meeting being convened like that.
Experts in the field debated the probability of the Nankai trough megaquake happening sooner rather than later due to the seismic activity in Miyazaki. They look at many factors as you can see in the graph, from NHK, above. It would seem that these emergency meetings are triggered if there is an earthquake of magnitude 6.8 or more. Last night's earthquake was a 6.9 magnitude.
It was a relief when they announced at 11.45 pm that they don't expect a megaquake on the Nankai trough as a result of last night's earthquake. However, NHK warned that although the latest earthquake may not set it off, there is still a 70 to 80% chance of a megaquake on the Nankai fault in the next 30 years.
Former nickname was "Saitama". Changed it to save confusion on place review posts! Irish, 20+ years in Japan! I also write on my personal website: insaitama.com
2 Comments
genkidesu
on Jan 14
This has actually been a topic of conversation between my husband and I about whether it's safe to be here in the event of some massive megaquake/tsunami because of that chatter about the Nankai Trough. We just have different sets of problems in our home countries (namely bushfires) so I guess there are issues no matter where you live. I probably sound uneducated but do you get many natural disasters in Ireland or is it fairly safe in that regard?
BigfamJapan
on Jan 14
@genkidesu All this talk of the Nankai Trough lately is quite scary. It is worrying that they really do seem to expect a megaquake, based on geographical data rather than a feeling or premonition! Ireland could be a good option for you!! Only that it is so far from Australia. But, we don't really have many natural disasters in Ireland. However, the West coast does get some pretty rough storms, usually the tail end of a hurricane from the States, and every once in a blue moon there is some flooding on the east coast. But loss of life is extremely rare. So on balance I think its fairly safe. And we've no dangerous animals either! And no guns!