The first cherry blossom forecast of 2025

The Japan Meteorological Corporation released their first cherry blossom forecast, for somei yoshino sakura in 2025, on Thursday January 9th 2025. They release the first forecast around the same date every year, give or take a day or two. The first forecast predicts the 2025 cherry blossom season to be much like an average year. The dates given for an average year is based on the actual bloom dates of the cherry blossoms over many years. 

The 2025 Cherry Blossom Forecast

They use existing data of previous seasons, tree growth status and look at cumulative temperatures as well as temperatures during autumn and winter to forecast flowering. The first forecast of 2025 predicts the cherry blossoms will start to bloom in Tokyo on March 24th 2025. This is the average date of flowering based on historical data. In addition, the first forecast predicts that full bloom will be around March 31st 2025. This is also in line with the average date of full bloom for Tokyo.  

However, please note, that the first forecast of the year often ends up being off. In fact, in 2024, it was way off. Initially they predicted that the cherry blossoms would bloom early, then they said that they would almost be in line with an average year. Ultimately, most of the predictions were wrong and they bloomed late. Not only do the temperatures leading up to spring play a part, but temperatures from here on in will also effect how the cherry blossoms go through the necessary processes of dormancy and growth. 

While the cherry blossom forecasts can give a general idea of when cherry blossoms might bloom, they are not gospel. As above, they often get it wrong. Although, its unusual for them to be as terribly off as they were in 2024! The forecasts will be updated several times between now and the start of bloom. You can follow the updates through the Japan Meteorological website here. And the flowering and full bloom forecasts by region here. 

{I took the featured image at the top of the post at a stunning off the beaten path cherry blossom spot in Konosu, Saitama Prefecture in April 2024.}